PERFECTLY HEDGED BLOG
Black Swan Events: The 2022 LME Nickel Crisis
𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗦𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘀: 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗡𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗹 𝗵𝗶𝘁 $𝟭𝟬𝟮,𝟬𝟬𝟬/𝗺𝘁
In March 2022, the nickel market experienced one of the most extreme moves in modern trading history. Prices doubled in a day, the LME froze trading, and then cancelled trades.
This wasn't a regular price spike, it was a black swan event that rewrote the rules and forced changes in how brokers, producers, consumers, and traders manage risk.
This article breaks down:
▪️What caused the spike
▪️Why it spiraled
▪️The lasting changes to trading rules
▪️Lessons for anyone managing positions in volatile markets
Custom Online Training
You are now able to pick and choose from our online modules to customize your learning exactly how you want.
The Great Copper Arbitrage of 2025: A Trader’s Playbook
Between February and August this year, traders in the copper market saw a massive, sustained arbitrage between CME and LME copper prices.
Driven by tariff speculation, geopolitics, and a global logistical scramble, the CME/LME arbitrage hit levels of over $3,000/mt. For some it was the trade of a lifetime. For others, it was a brutal reminder that pigs get slaughtered.
This article breaks down in detail:
▪️ What caused the arb to blow out
▪️ How the physical trade was executed
▪️ The difference between CME and LME copper contracts
▪️ How traders made millions
▪️ What happens next for the copper market
If you’re in physical metals, risk, or macro trading, this one’s worth a read.
The Best Offense Is A Good Defense
We often focus on being risk averse or managing losses, but this should not be the only focus. Being too cautious can mean missing out on opportunities.
How I Broke Into Trading
I’ve posted a lot about how graduates and other new entrants can break into trading. I thought it might be worth sharing my own route into the industry. Some parts won’t apply to everyone, but there may be something useful in it. I also wanted to get it down on paper so when the screenplay gets made about my life, I own the copyright. (Side note: I think Henry Cavill is the obvious choice to play me.)
Stress Tests & Variation Margin
Knowing whether your company can finance margins on hedges can be the difference between success and failure.
Back to Basics
Sometimes it's important to go back to basics. No, we're not talking about the absolute smash that was Christina Aguilera's 5th studio album, we are talking about the fundamental principles behind hedging. With all the current headlines around arbitrage and backwardations, it's easy to skip over the important foundational concepts you need to master before considering more advanced concepts. Getting a solid grounding will make everything else easier to understand.
Symbiotic Relationships
Sometimes you will find yourself needing to work with companies or people you wouldn’t choose to.
What Prompted the LME Spreads Rule Change?
A couple of weeks ago I wrote a post explaining the rule change from the LME on front-month spread trading. I thought it would be worth giving an explanation on just why the LME felt the need to implement such a rule change.
Storytelling is Everything
Learn how to tell your story - it matters much more than you probably think.
How much is your team’s time worth?
Companies often spend hundreds of man hours of their senior staff training new members of the team. The Perfectly Hedged Online Course reduces that time, and importantly cost. New joiners can get a leg up in the industry before they have even started, allowing them to truly hit the ground running.
FreightUp! Podcast Feature
Perfectly Hedged founder sat down with Freight Investor Services to discuss some of the opportunities and challenges that hedging metals offers.
Perfectly Hedged Website Now in Spanish & Mandarin
We are pleased to announce that the Perfectly Hedged website is now viewable in Spanish and Mandarin alongside English. Simply select your preferred language from the drop down in the top-right corner.
LME Front Month Spreads Rule Change
The LME has changed the rules for front month spread trading. This article explains what those changes are and the impacts they might have.