PERFECTLY HEDGED BLOG
What is a Futures Trade?
Most of the time, hedging a commodity involves entering into a futures contract on a relevant exchange, but what exactly is a futures trade?
Hedging Vs. Leaving It To Chance
For most commodity companies, hedging is not a choice, the concept is ingrained in their trading philosophy in order to protect their margins (and their lenders) against movements in the outright prices of the commodities they trade. But why exactly is this the case?
Arbitrage Profits Vs. Tariff Risk
While the recent spike in CME/LME copper arbitrage has given an opportunity for traders to bank huge profits, the potential for earlier than expected tariffs are causing serious worries.
Just Borrow The Spread
While some companies like to try and extract additional profits by trading nearby spreads, for most companies borrowing the spread well in advance of futures becoming prompt is the most prudent approach.
What is Mark-to-Market (M2M)
An accurate mark-to-market (MTM) ensures traders and businesses always know the real value of their positions. But how does it work, and why does it matter?
Warrant Deliveries
We know why traders and consumers turn to the exchange when metal is scarceโtight markets, producer outages, and supply shocks can create an urgent need for material. But hereโs the real question: ๐ช๐ต๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ฎ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ผ๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐บ๐ฒ๐๐ฎ๐น ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ผ ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฒ๐
๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ต๐ผ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฟ๐๐ ๐ฝ๐น๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฒ?
Whatโs in it for them?
How do massive amounts of metal suddenly appear on the exchange?
What drives these deliveries?
Warrant deliveries remain one of the most misunderstood (and whispered about) aspects of metal trading. This article breaks it all downโthe how, why, and financial incentives behind these moves.
Hedged Repos
Hedged repos can be a great tool for all of those in the commodity supply chain to reduce stress on bank lines and margin accounts.
Bitcoin as a Hedge?
Is Bitcoin really a hedge against traditional financial markets? This article explores the relationship between Bitcoin and some major traditional investments.
Shifting Strategies: Metal Trading
Some of the worldโs most powerful oil traders, including Gunvor, Vitol, and Mercuria, are now aggressively expanding into metals. 
Why? Because as oil market volatility stabilises, metals present a massive opportunityโespecially with the energy transition fuelling soaring demand.
Copper shortages could reach 10 million metric tons by 2035.
Lithium, nickel, and rare earth minerals are under immense supply pressure.
Geopolitical shifts are reshaping global trade flows.
But metals trading isnโt for the faint of heart. 
Margins are compressing, fraud remains a major risk, and only those with deep expertise will thrive. 
So, what does it take to succeed in this evolving market?
Should small commodity companies trade physical aluminum?
This is a question Iโve often asked myself, and I still donโt have a completely convincing answer. Unlike other refined metals like copper, zinc, and leadโwhere you must trade the physical metal to capture changes in premiumsโ๐ฎ๐น๐๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐๐บ ๐ผ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ผ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ผ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป.
RV Trading
Hedging is often viewed as a pure risk management toolโsomething used by companies looking to avoid outright price exposure. But can speculators hedge too?
Ali Premiums: What Happens Next?
In this article we discuss some of the impacts of the rising aluminum premiums.
A Common Misconception: Hedging Creates More Problems Than It Solves
One of the biggest fears companies have about hedging is getting caught in a ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ธ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป, which can impact profitability. But avoiding hedging due to this fear can expose businesses to even greater risks.
Back-pricings
In physical commodity contracts, back-pricings exists when the quotational period (QP) offers at least two pricing options. Crucially, the QPโs declaration date must fall after at least one of the pricing periods has passed.
Truck Capacities in the USA
Sometimes there are simple solutions that solve multi-layered problems. I thought of one such example that could have a dramatic impact on US commodities, inflation, and fuel consumption, among other issues: Truck Capacities
Technical Analysis Vs. Fundamental Trading
If you read posts on LinkedIn you will see there is a near-constant debate surrounding technical analysis (TA) vs. fundamental trading, here we discuss both approaches.
A New Approach For Exchanges
We are extremely fortunate that for base metals, there are multiple highly liquid exchanges that allow companies to hedge their price risk. However, this is not the case for all commodities, and even within base metals there are varying levels of liquidity.
The Natural Hedge
Let's take a look at what some companies assume is the best way to handle their underlying price risk - a 'natural' hedge. In fact, a true natural hedge is not common and most of these companies are actually speculating on prices, rather than mitigating their risks.
What is a Title Document
Over the past year we have seen repeated cases of fraud in the commodities industry, ranging from small cases all the way up to billion dollar crimes. Often the key to these cases of fraud stems from a fake or doctored title documents, but what exactly is a title document. This article explores what title documents are and what can go wrong.
