PERFECTLY HEDGED BLOG
Foreign Exchange Hedge Cards
Hedge cards are a simple yet powerful tool. While they are most often thought of for outright price risk for metals (as discussed in prior articles), they are equally useful for managing foreign exchange exposures as this article details.
Foreign Exchange - Don’t Neglect Additional Costs
As we near the end of the year, we enter long-term negotiations for commodity contracts for 2025 and beyond. When negotiating these deals, it is important to remember foreign exchange exposures particularly for costs such as logistics or storage that are often charged in local currency.
Stimulus or Bust
Over the past few years commodity bulls have been talking up a dramatic stimulus plan from China. Time and again what has actually materialized has failed to live up to expectations and as we've seen over the last week, it is having a dramatic impact on prices.
Correction Vs. Reversal
It is very difficult to know whether a market is in a correction or a full reversal. There are however some repetitive traits to each of these market conditions that can help traders identify the situation and position themselves accordingly.
A Rising Tide Floats All Commodities?
There are so many influences on metals prices that need to be considered on a daily basis by commodity companies. One factor that has reared its head over the last few weeks: The price of Oil
The Fed, USD, & The Price of Commodities
All eyes have been on the FED as they decide when, and by how much to reduce interest rates. Now they have started their rate cutting cycle, it is ever more important to understand the relationship between interest rates, the USD, and commodity prices.
Tripartite Agreements (TPAs)
An issue that gets brought up frequently by commodity companies is their ability to finance the initial margin and variation margin required by their hedges - just ask a broker how many times a day they get requests to extend additional credit! Tripartite agreements are an excellent solution to this problem and this article breaks them down for all involved. Not only can they drastically reduce the cash burden on commodity companies, but they also offer increased protection to the brokers and the commodity financing banks. The fact that TPAs are not a standard requirement from all commodity finance banks prior to financing physical material is a missed opportunity in my opinion.
Spread Risk & Spread Cards
Commodity companies face a major risk that if not managed correctly, can easily negate the profits generated by their physical trading activity. I am talking about spread risk.
Types of Futures Orders
Familiarizing yourself with the different types of futures orders you can place will drastically improve your comfort levels and ability to handle this volatile environment. This article breaks down some of the more common futures trade order types using simple examples.
Simple Option Contracts For Hedging
Companies that are open to a certain amount of price risk can look to the options market to provide a guarantee of a hedge position while still allowing room to take a speculative position on the outright price of a commodity.
Market Holidays: Same Commodity, Different Exchanges
When trading a commodity such as copper that trades across multiple exchanges such as the LME, CME, and SHFE, holding open positions on days one exchange is closed, but other exchanges are open can pose a significant challenge when comes to speculative, or hedging positions.
What is Slippage?
You may have heard about slippage in your contracts and not fully understood. Or you may have been on the rough end of a phone call with a customer, not understanding why they are upset with their price. Here we break down into simple terms what to expect and how you can take a proactive approach
Aluminum Premium Hedging
This article goes through what premium swaps are, how they work, and how companies utilize them to their advantage. Everyone involved in the aluminum industry: producers, end consumers, and traders should all have a clear understanding of this instrument that can be hugely beneficial to their business. From a pure hedging perspective to a speculative one, premium swap contracts play a key role in the aluminum markets globally.
Yen Carry Trade
One of the most talked about stories of the last few weeks has been the Yen carry trade. This article breaks down what the carry trade is using real-life examples, discusses exactly what went wrong, and shows how investors could have mitigated some of those risks.
CME Warrants
Most of the details regarding CME warrants are the same as on the LME, however there are some differences worth familiarizing yourself with if looking to utilize the CME for physical trade.
LME Warrants
Warrants are a key part of the metals trading world, however they are also often misunderstood. This article looks at a this key feature of the LME and how they relate to futures contracts.
The Energy Transition
The energytransition is coming. This is not a political statement, this is not about climate change, or even a view on green energy vs. fossil fuels, it is simply a fact that the world is transitioning to the next phase of power generation. With that comes an enormous pressure on demand for certain commodities. Whether it is tomorrow, a month, a year, or several years from now, prices for base metals and other critical materials are likely to skyrocket from today's levels. I don't see many analysts that are predicting $9k copper in 5+ years time, in fact there have been frequent calls for $15k, $20k, even $40k copper in the coming years as supply struggles to keep up with demand. And copper is just one of a number of metals that will be critical to these developments.
A problem with betting on higher prices right now is there are very few entities with deep enough pockets to withstand 10+% downswings (as we've seen from the liquidations over the last few weeks). There are however certain governments that have both very deep pockets, and a vested interest in the energy transition that could be taking advantage of this opportunity.
Whether the infrastructure required (electrical grids, charging stations, etc.) will be publicly funded, or public-private partnerships, governments (and therefore taxpayers) have huge exposures to these prices and should be taking a serious long-term approach to prices for energy transition metals and building hedging programs in order to protect themselves over the years to come. Failure to do so will likely result in billions of additional cost, and that's just for the projects that have already been established.
How Traders Make Money: Scrap Metal
While scrap trading can be a lot more niche of a market than refined metal or concentrates trading, the margins (when traded correctly) can be well worth the time and effort this type of trading requires.
How Traders Make Money: Concentrates Trading
Here we take a look at the world of Treatment and Refining charges, more commonly known as TCs and RCs and how traders utilize them to create profits.
