Expect the Unexpected

Those of you that are following the World Cup will have seen one of the biggest upsets in tournament history yesterday. It wasn’t necessarily the result of Paraguay beating Germany, upsets happen, but it was how it happened.

For only the second time in major tournament history, Germany lost a penalty shootout. The only other time this has happened was in the 1976 Euro finals. As an England fan I am unfortunately used to losing on penalties but for Germans it’s almost unheard of.

In commodities it seems that events that used to occur once in 50 years are happening with a lot more frequency. I can’t be the only one that feels there has been a weekly headline in 2026 that most other years would be the story of the year.

Today we prepare ourselves for another potentially huge announcement that could permanently change the dynamic in the copper cathode market. All the while trying to deal with other geopolitical and macro events that are increasingly volatile.

A football team (still can’t bring myself to say soccer team) can practice penalties but it’s hard to replicate the same emotions as players will feel in a real game.

As traders we can simulate scenarios and try and guess how the market will react but it’s equally difficult. Fortunately we can prepare for these situations by managing our positions and risk so that we limit our exposure to these events.

On the other hand, these events can be tremendous opportunities for those traders that are taking risk, but if they get it wrong, it’s just as painful as your team crashing out in a penalty shootout. And if you were betting on the Germany game yesterday it was likely pretty financially painful as well!