Fiat isn’t dead

This one isn't advice, just a view. It's also slightly outside my comfort zone. But if LinkedIn is just an echo chamber then we're all wasting our time.

I don't buy that the fiat system suddenly broke in late 2025 and that alone explains why precious metals (and some other commodities) have gone parabolic.

Yes, US debt continues to grow, no argument there. But I don't believe it crossed some magic threshold last year that suddenly rendered USD obsolete.

In August 2022, the DXY hit 112 - a level not seen for 20 years at that point. At that time total US debt was just shy of $31tn, around 112% of GDP.

Today, the debt stands at ~$38tn - or ~124% of GDP per US Treasury.

To be clear, the US absolutely needs to get its borrowing and spending under control. Households have to balance budgets, governments should not be exempt from that reality.

What I don't believe is that a sudden debt apocalypse is the sole driver of panic buying in precious metals, as a lot of the recent commentary on here suggests.

From August 2022 to August 2024 gold traded in a $600/oz range. Silver increased $9/oz in the same time frame. That was with a debt-to-GDP ratio already north of 110%.

There are plenty of reasons to be bullish traditional safe havens:
▪️ Elevated geopolitcal risk
▪️ Growing concerns around equity valuations
▪️ Volatility across multiple asset classes
▪️ A USD under pressure

But declaring "fiat is finished" feels premature at best. To me this looks more like a combination of geopolitical hedging, positioning, speculation, and portfolio insurance, not a singular monetary failure.